Should we raise the price for new subscribers?
A founder is about to move new subscribers from 9 to 12 dollars. She tried 11 once and sign-ups dropped, but she never counted. Her own subscription export settles what that test really showed.
Everything in the grey boxes is what Learning Nodes returned in real runs, selected and unedited. The app and its subscription file are made up for the example.
VERSIÓN INTERACTIVA · DOS MINUTOS
Recorré la sesión de a founder en el Workstation, paso a paso. Una nota corta explica cada pantalla. Sin registrarte, y no se guarda nada.
La situación, tal como se escribió
La decisión que propuso Learning Nodes
Decide whether to move new subscribers to 12 dollars a month from November
- Move new subscribers to 12 dollars a month from November
- Keep new subscribers at 9 dollars a month
You are deciding whether to move new subscribers to 12 dollars a month from November or keep them at 9 dollars a month. It turns on how much sign-ups dropped in the past 11-dollar test and whether people who joined at the higher price stayed as long as those at 9 dollars.
Qué haría correcta cada opción
Move new subscribers to 12 dollars a month from November
The drop in sign-ups at 11 dollars was smaller than the extra revenue from new subscribers at 12 dollars, and people who joined at the higher price stayed at least as long as those at 9 dollars.
Keep new subscribers at 9 dollars a month
Sign-ups dropped by more than the extra revenue from new subscribers at 12 dollars, or people who joined at the higher price cancelled sooner than those at 9 dollars.
Las preguntas que se interponen
- How many of the people who joined in the 11-dollar weeks stayed compared with the 9-dollar months
- Whether cancellations bunch up in the first month
- How many sign-ups per week occurred in the six weeks at 11 dollars compared with the surrounding weeks at 9 dollars?
Afirmaciones que nadie había verificado
Last year I tried 11 dollars for six weeks and sign-ups dropped, though I never counted by how much
The case for keeping the price at 9 dollars rests on this unmeasured drop.
La prueba más barata: Count sign-ups per week in your subscriptions_since_launch file for the six weeks at 11 dollars and the weeks at 9 dollars around them.
Existing subscribers would stay on 9 for a year
The revenue from the price increase depends on this one-year hold for existing subscribers.
La prueba más barata: Check your own records for how long you have kept existing subscribers at the old price in past changes.
Respuestas con los datos
She attached the subscription export and pressed Answer from data. Learning Nodes wrote the queries from the column names, ran them in her browser, and answered with the numbers next to the queries that produced them. It also said plainly what the file could not tell her.
How many of the people who joined in the 11-dollar weeks stayed compared with the 9-dollar months, and whether cancellations bunch up in the first month
Of 1000 total subscribers 860 joined the 9-dollar plan and 140 joined the 11-dollar plan. You see 684 of the 860 nine-dollar subscribers remain active. You see 86 of the 140 eleven-dollar subscribers remain active. Days active values are missing in 77 percent of rows so first-month cancellation shares rest on very few records. The file supplies no information on exact join dates or reasons for cancellation.
SELECT plan_price, COUNT(*) AS subscriber_count, SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'active' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS active_count FROM data GROUP BY plan_price SELECT plan_price, CASE WHEN days_active < 30 THEN 'first_month' ELSE 'later' END AS cancel_timing, COUNT(*) AS cancelled_count FROM data WHERE status = 'cancelled' GROUP BY plan_price, CASE WHEN days_active < 30 THEN 'first_month' ELSE 'later' END ORDER BY plan_price, cancelled_count DESC LIMIT 10 SELECT plan_price, COUNT(*) AS total_cancelled FROM data WHERE status = 'cancelled' GROUP BY plan_price
subscriptions_since_launch.csv, 1,000 rows
Trae tu propio archivo: adjunta un CSV a cualquier situación y pulsa Responder con datos.
What the founder committed (illustrative)
Keep new subscribers at 9 dollars through November and test 12 dollars on one country first
Founder
- 684 of 860 subscribers who joined at 9 dollars are still active
- 86 of 140 subscribers who joined at 11 dollars are still active
- The sign-up drop during the 11-dollar weeks is still uncounted, so it becomes the next question
- First-month cancellation figures rest on too few records to lean on
Frozen when committed. The one-country test is a new situation that starts from this record.
Mirá el mismo caso en el producto, paso a paso.
She came in ready to raise the price. Her own file showed that people who joined at the higher price were leaving faster, and it showed which number she still had to count before deciding for good.
